Guinea
Guinea, also known as Guinea-Conakry, is a low-income country with low-range performance in most categories of the Global State of Democracy framework, and mid-range performance in Participation. It is amongst the bottom 25 of the world’s countries in the majority of factors of democratic performance. Over the last five years, the country has experienced significant declines across multiple aspects of Representation, Rights, and Rule of Law. These stark declines have followed a 2021 coup that overthrew President Alpha Condé and installed a military regime. Economically, Guinea remains heavily reliant on agriculture and mining bauxite, diamonds, gold, and iron ore.
Present-day Guinea was long inhabited by hunter-gatherer populations before the dawn of the Mali and Fulani empires. The Portuguese arrived in the 15th century and developed a slave trade; the country eventually became a French colony in the 19th century. A 1958 independence referendum made Guinea the first French colony in Africa to gain independence. The early years of independence were marked by the authoritarian rule of Presidents Sekou Touré and Lansana Conté. During this time, Guinea experienced coups, human rights abuses – including the use of concentration camps—and severe poverty. It was also impacted by the effects of civil wars in neighboring countries. While the 1990 constitution allowed multiparty elections to be held in 1993, the first democratic election did not occur until 2010, when Alpha Condé was elected president.
Throughout Guinea’s post-independence history, the polity has been significantly affected by ethnic cleavages. Ethnic and regional voting is widespread, as politicians exploit ethnic divides between the Fulani (approximately 40 percent of the population) and the Malinké (approximately 30 percent) to win power; these divisions have also resulted in ethnic violence and turmoil. Indeed, many scholars have labelled the degree of political polarization that exists between the government and the opposition to be “extreme.” Other issues of identity continue to divide Guineans. The country has one of the highest rates of female genital mutilation at 95 per cent, gender-based violence affects nine in ten women and girls, and women’s political representation has remained weak despite the adoption of the Gender Parity Law in 2019. Guinea is also one of the few former French colonies that continues to criminalize same-sex relationships.
For the general population, issues of democracy, development, and corruption drive everyday political concerns, and all three played a major role in the 2021 military coup. President Condé had sought and won a third term in 2020 despite the widespread support for a two-term limit. Since the coup, protesters calling for a return to democracy have been met with excessive police force. Guineans are also concerned about the state of development in their country, as the economic situation is poor, and the national budget allocates less than 12 per cent to education, while total health expenditures amount to less than four per cent of GDP. Finally, corruption had been a growing concern in recent years, which further undermined confidence in the administration.
Over the next few years, it will be important to watch the country’s performance in Representation and Rule of Law. As a result of the 2021 coup, the parliament and Guinea’s electoral democracy remain suspended. The coup and the potential transition have major regional implications, as economic development in West Africa has been increasingly threatened by rising insecurity. While ethnic politics are complicating the return to democracy, the military junta proposed in 2022 a three-year timetable for a transition back to democratic government and elections. Potential delays in this transition should be monitored carefully.
(Last updated August 2024)
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April 2025
Guinea sets September date for constitutional referendum
On 1 April, Guinea’s military junta announced a constitutional referendum for 21 September 2025, framing it as a precursor to elections and a step toward ‘restoring constitutional order.’ The draft constitution is expected to address key issues such as presidential term limits, electoral frameworks, and whether junta members can run for office—a restriction currently imposed by Article 46 of the transition charter. The vote follows a missed December 2024 deadline to end military rule. The National Alliance for Alternation and Democracy (ANAD), a coalition of parties and associations, called the announcement a ‘manoeuvre to perpetuate dictatorship.’ With two former ruling parties suspended, another under surveillance, rising repression, and a delayed electoral census, observers question the prospects for holding free and fair elections as scheduled.
Sources: Africa Confidential, International IDEA, Guinée News, Radio France Internationale, Jeune Afrique, Africa News
March 2025
Guinea pardons ex-president convicted for 2009 stadium massacre
On 28 March, a presidential decree broadcast on national television announced that Guinea’s transitional leader, General Mamadi Doumbouya, had granted a pardon to former president Moussa Dadis Camara on health grounds. Camara’s lawyer confirmed the next day that he had been released from Conakry’s central prison on the evening of 28 March. The pardon came just days after the transitional government pledged to compensate victims of the 2009 Conakry stadium massacre from the national budget, despite a court ruling in July 2024 that Camara and others were personally responsible for reparations. The Guinean Organisation for the Defence of Human and Civil Rights (OGDH) and the Association of Victims, Relatives, and Friends of 28 September 2009 (AVIPA) condemned the decision, questioning the health justification and noting that medical care can be provided in detention. They called it a blow to judicial independence and victims’ pursuit of justice.
Sources: International IDEA, Guinee News, International Federation for Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, Punch Nigeria, British Broadcasting Corporation
December 2024
Military junta extends transitional rule
On 31 December, Guinea’s ruling junta announced an extension of the country’s transition period but did not specify a new timeline for returning to civilian rule. The initial agreement with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), reached in 2022, had set a 24-month transition, meaning elections were expected by the end of 2024. However, the military government, led by Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya, cited logistical and institutional challenges in justifying the extension. In his New Year’s address, Doumbouya reaffirmed his commitment to restoring constitutional order, stating that a constitutional referendum would be organized in early 2025, but did not clarify when elections would follow. Opposition groups condemned the move, declaring they would no longer recognize the transitional authorities after the missed deadline. The announcement is expected to heighten political tensions as the opposition pushes for a clear and binding electoral timeline.
Sources: Guinee News, Radio France Internationale, Africa News (1), Africa News (2)
Stampede at football match leaves dozens of fans dead
On 1 December, at least 56 people were killed in a stampede and clashes with security forces during a football match in Nzérékoré, Guinea. The violence erupted after fans stormed the pitch in protest against referee decisions, leading to chaos as security forces intervened. A collective of human rights groups in the Nzérékoré region later estimated the death toll had risen to 135, while adding that 50 people were still missing. One rights group, citing video analysis and witness accounts, reported that police fired tear gas into the stands and onto the field, triggering panic and a deadly rush toward the stadium’s main exit. Prime Minister Bah Oury condemned the incident and promised justice, while human rights groups called for an independent investigation into the role of security forces in the tragedy.
Sources: Guinee News, The New York Times, France 24, British Broadcasting Corporation, Amnesty International
October 2024
Authorities dissolve dozens of political parties amid compliance crackdown
On 28 October, Guinea's transitional government dissolved 53 political parties, suspended 54 others for three months, and placed another 67 under observation. A total of 211 parties were reviewed, and this marks an unprecedented move in the nation’s political history. The Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralization initiated an evaluation of all political parties in June, citing a need to "clean up the political chessboard." Major opposition parties, including the Rally of the Guinean People (Rassemblement du Peuple Guinéen, RPG) and the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (Union des Forces Démocratiques de Guinée, UFDG) were placed under observation but allowed to continue operations temporarily, provided they resolve irregularities identified in the review. The leaders of these parties are in exile.
Sources: Guinee News, Jeune Afrique, Radio France Internationale, Associated Press News
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Global ranking per category of democratic performance in 2023
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